New Age

How important digital transformation is in outcoming global processes? What does the digital transformation and use of online tools actually represent and how much will it help or harm? What and how big is the role of science in preserving world’s peace and security, collective or public health, what diplomacy represents in that context? What will the economic and overall recovery of the world from the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis look like? Do we listen to each other or just take care about our own interests? Those are some of the issues that were discussed during the fourth day of the XIV Summer School for Young Diplomats “Gavro Vukovic”.

Hybrid model of diplomacy

Is international arena ready for heading towards a hybrid model of diplomacy, which requires diplomats to learn how to move and interact online? Is it possible to lead complex negotiation talks online such as the one in peacekeeping process? What are the advantages of a digital transformation and what are security challenges? Those were the main questions discussed during the panel, moderated by Dragana Vešović , Head of Directorate for NATO at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro, that served as a platform for analysis of the intersection between international relations and digitalization and what is the future of diplomacy in this context.

Science stated that there are many positive elements of  new technologies, including their cost-effectiveness, noted Tristen Naylor , Fellow in International Relations at London School of Economics and Political Science, adding that there are also some negative ones. For example, online summits deprived participants of less formal or informal conversations that were typical for breaks in summit agendas, and which were very important in terms of additional information exchange, establishing relations and strengthening trust. A digital shift that was registered in recent years and has become even more accentuated by pandemic has actually undercut the added value of the summitry. It is evident the world is heading towards a hybrid model of diplomacy, which requires diplomats to learn how to move and interact online, even in some complex negotiation processes.

Traditional peacekeeping is based on some commonly shared principles such as personal relationships, building of trust and confidentiality, emphasized Govinda Clayton , Senior Researcher of Peace Processes, Center for Security Studies ETH Zurich. The context of digital transformation threatens this traditional format of “in person connections” and possibly may undermine the entire process. Although digital tools might be used in peace processes, negotiations, and mediation and can bring significant effectiveness of combining online with live meetings, he shares the view that certain less formal events may be organized in a hybrid manner. However, he argues that such a format entails potential security breaches and certainly hardens the indispensable trust building.

New battles will take place in the digital space and infrastructure that supports it, emphasized Chelsey Slack, Deputy Head of the Cyber Defense Section, Emerging Security Challenges Division of NATO. Lessons learned from cyber-attacks demonstrate that a distance does not entail effective defense in a cyber space and that digital processes are always profoundly interconnected. The NATO shifted its view from looking at a cyber space as a merely technical issue to perceiving it as a full-scale political space whose breach, based on international law, could create grounds for invoking article 5 of the NATO Treaty, said Ms. Slack.

In the last 10 years, digital tools have been used in many aspects of international relations, last year, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic raised digital diplomacy to a completely new level. And we need to thank for that to the science.

Science relies on knowledge and resources

Science diplomacy has become an umbrella term to describe a number of formal or informal technical, research-based, academic or engineering exchanges, within the general field of international relations. The growing importance of science diplomacy and how it can be used to further strengthen international relations were discussed during the panel moderated by Vladan Božović, Project Coordinator at the UNDP Montenegro.

According to Bryan Wells, NATO Chief Scientist, science diplomacy is a fast-growing field of research, education, and practice dedicated to the better understanding and reinforcing the connections between science, technology, and international affairs to tackle national and global challenges. As he stated, the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is perhaps best illustrated by the challenges facing science diplomacy. Many global challenges, whether they are related to the economy, health care or climate change, require a certain link between science and international relations, as well as that science is a great bridge to build relations between nations. The science today is global value and it will give us numerous advantages if we approach it that way.

Global problems require global solutions and responses, based on profound understanding of the problem, interdisciplinary approaches, interstate collaboration and solidarity, emphasised Mina Brajović, WHO Representative for Montenegro. She stressed the fact that the world is currently facing, in addition to the Covid-19 pandemic, many major and long-term challenges and problems that transcend national borders and which, as such, require broad, international response. Science diplomacy might be used as a powerful tool to restore diplomatic ties, making the strengthening of a dialogue between politics, science and society an indispensable endeavour. An example of good practice of science diplomacy, i.e., cooperation in the field of public health is the so-called COVAX initiative.

Marija Backović, Senior Research Scientist at the Pasteur Institute from France, guided participants through the ever-enlarging and challenging world of scientific research, innovation and discoveries. She noted that the state of science equally relies on people who will create new knowledge through their scientific research and on resources that are vital for initiation of the studies. She pointed out that the information has become highly available and accessible to everyone, which entails both advantages and disadvantages. The issue arises when a certain share of the audience consults non-credible sources which leads to an increasing trend of disinformation as well as subsequent spread of conspiracy theories and confusion.

There is no science without resources. Probably the best example is quick development of the Covid-19 vaccines, on the one side as the reflection of a quickly-mobilizing and highly-skilled scientific community, and on the other promptness of the international community to find the necessary resources to end the health crisis.

Strong institutions, fast recovery

The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic caused the largest economic crisis since World War II. According to experts, the crisis has its own specifics in relation to the previous ones: it is characterised by sudden and almost simultaneous shocks both on the side of aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The main trigger for negative repercussions was caused by global measures aimed at preventing the spread of the virus which involved temporary suspension or limited operation of mostly service activities, while in some countries the production activities were suspended. As the world economy and the economy of individual countries are strongly affected by the pandemic, and as the pandemic continues, it is highly unlikely that recovery will be equally quick and easy.

Boris Rebić, Project Manager tasked with Digital Governance in UNDP Montenegro opened the panel on economic recovery in the post pandemic period by reminding participants  that the low-income economies were hit the hardest and are expected to grow slower than the others, making way for potential smart and strategic investments aimed at recovery and growth.

Six years of development being wiped clean in only one and a half year of the pandemic is a shocking result from the recent research oh human development index in Montenegro, pointed out Daniela Gasparikova, UNDP Resident Representative for Montenegro. She noted that similar trends could be observed throughout the world, mainly due to fragility of economic development models which didn’t live up to expectations. The most vulnerable is mostly affected by the crisis and that should be taken into account in developing recovery plans.

There is a hope that we will soon enter the post pandemic era and 6 economies of the Western Balkans have to work as one to get out of the crisis, emphasized Ivana Gardašević , Senior Expert at Regional Cooperation Council. She noted that big investors are looking for a safe and stable environment, and at the same time they are looking for opportunities, as well. Therefore, there are different areas of potential investments in the region like tourism, metal processing, auto industry, and agriculture. In order to prosper, WB economies have to stop competing and start working as a single regional market, she said.

As Kyhl Amosson, International Economic Development Expert, pointed out, sometimes our economies were affected immediately, and sometimes crises had a long-term impact, impacts that came in waves, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, what are the mechanisms that minimise the consequences and enable a faster recovery? As he stated, a mechanism involves information on market, trust and capital, and these three elements generally determine how many individual countries have suffered a blow and how quickly can a country recover from the crisis. He mentioned an economic rule that if a country has strong institutions, a high level of trust and capital, an impact of the crisis is lower.

As stressed by the panellists, the weaker institutions, the greater impact on the population and the economy, and generally the slower recovery is. In this context, as he stressed, diplomacy has a strong role, especially when working on recovery plans of those who are hit the hardest by the crisis: the poor.

Transform monologs into dialogue

The inspiring discussion among distinguished speakers and young diplomats ended with an online workshop on negotiation led by   Siniša Vuković, Professor at School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Professor Vukovic pointed out that, at the first place, we need to distinguish negotiation from other communication processes. Second, it is important to recognise its significance and purpose. The basis of any communication is the exchange of information, but the difference between the negotiation process and communication is in their purpose. The exchange of information is essential for all negotiations, but their ultimate goal is to change the perceptions of interlocutors and achieve interests of the negotiating party.

On the other hand, the exchange of information can in itself be a goal. In that case, communication is a matter of monologues. “It is only once monologues are transformed into dialogue, the negotiations begin”, said Professor Vuković. In this sense, the negotiations involve highlighting the degree of disagreement of our and others’ attitudes. The purpose is to question their, and very importantly – our views, in order to understand the root of the negotiation problem and real interests behind the different positions.

The end result of the negotiations is a compromise solution that cannot preserve starting maximalist positions. Thus, the process requires from us to abandon starting positions in order to reach a common solution. A success of negotiations therefore implies that a focus shifts from a position to an interest. In other words, an optimal solution is not to retain initial positions, but to achieve both sides’ interests through dialogue, trust and changing perceptions.

In the reality of international negotiations rarely provides examples of achieving optimal solutions for all parties involved. As concluded by Professor Vuković, in international negotiation it is recommended to focus on interest not starting positions, to understand the root of the problems, change perception and be guided by values. Therefore, it is important to remember:

“Effective negotiators keep a focus on an interest, explore new formulas and are willing to redefine assumptions they bring to the process.”

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XIV Summer School for Young Diplomats “Gavro Vuković”, organized by the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro, was held from 5 to 9 July, 2021, in online format.  It gathered 70 young diplomats from all over the world that had an opportunity to discuss issues of contemporary diplomacy with 50 prominent speakers through 20 interactive sessions over five working days. It put specific emphasis on the role and importance of diplomacy to reinforce trust and cooperation for shaping secure and prosperous future. Agenda

For this edition of the Summer School we owe particular gratitude to our long-standing partners from UNDP Montenegro who have been with us every step of the way, since 2008.  This year, we are particularly thankful to our colleagues from the NATO Public Diplomacy Division who have recognised the programme of Summer School as conducive to the Euro-Atlantic agenda for a more secure world. We are thankful to our partners from the Municipality of Berane for safekeeping of heritage of Duke Gavro Vuković.